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[1/2] Shadow of the supporter is pictured during the election convention of Law and Justice (PiS) party, before Sunday's parliamentary elections, in Przysucha, Poland October 9, 2023. "It is the most important election we have this year in Europe," said Viktor Szabo, portfolio manager at asset manager abrdn, adding markets had not priced in scenarios such as a hung parliament or the possibility of an early election. Such a scenario would be a key positive for both the currency and Polish equities, said Anna Zadornova, an economist at UBS. "Ultimately there is a point where you need to yield to the economics and how things are going," said Kaan Nazli, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman. ($1 = 0.9461 euros)Reporting by Karin Strohecker and Marc Jones, editing by Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Kacper, Viktor Szabo, Szabo, PiS, Daniel Wood, William Blair, Anna Zadornova, Banks, Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Adam Glapinski, Kaan Nazli, Neuberger Berman, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Alexander Smith Organizations: Law, Justice, REUTERS, LONDON, abrdn, European Union, JPMorgan, Reuters Graphics EU, EU, liberal Civic Coalition, UBS, Poland's, Copley Fund, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Przysucha, Poland, Europe, loggerheads, Brussels, Romania, Hungary

A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. Markets have seen some seismic shifts in recent weeks after being forced to adjust to the 'higher for longer' mantra propagated by major central banks. "I don't think we're back to the point where these central banks will start tightening again..but if you are a central banker, especially of an oil importing country, you do become more cautious." On the other hand, a select number of central banks in emerging markets were still in hiking mode. Turkey, which is struggling with inflation pressures and a currency that is sliding from one record low to the next, delivered another bumper 500 bps rate hike.

Persons: Heiko Becker, Bjoern, Kaan Nazli, Neuberger Berman, Karin Strohecker, Sumanta Sen, Christina Fincher Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, DWS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Central, America, Europe, Sweden, Norway, Australia, Canada, Japan, Brazil, Chile, Poland, Hungary, Turkey, Russia, Thailand, London, Mumbai

Turkey's Central Bank headquarters is seen in Ankara, Turkey in this January 24, 2014 file photo. Yet five foreign investors told Reuters that this week's rate hike signalled a new independence among policymakers who are serious about addressing unrelenting pressure on the currency and reining in inflation expectations. "It feels like they are correcting the mistakes they made with their first rate hike decisions," said Viktor Szabo, portfolio manager at abrdn in London. Erdogan, who has fired four central bank chiefs in four years, has said little about the rate hikes. Reuters GraphicsTurkish stock, Eurobond and CDS markets are more attractive targets this year and next, especially after the rate hike, investors and officials say.

Persons: Umit, Erdogan's unorthodoxy, Mehmet Simsek, Goldman Sachs, Tayyip Erdogan's, Viktor Szabo, Ola El, Van Eck, ERDOGAN, Erdogan, Simsek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Cevdet Yilmaz, Blaise Antin, TCW, Kaan, Neuberger Berman, Jonathan Spicer, Marc Jones, Jorgelina, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Turkey's Central Bank, Finance, Goldman, Reuters, abrdn, Emerging Markets, Wall Street, JPMorgan, Reuters Graphics, CDS, Yeni, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Ankara, Turkey, ANKARA, LONDON, New York, London, Van, Los Angeles, Reuters Graphics Turkish, Yeni Safak, Morocco, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Istanbul, Rosario

Some investors and economic analysts are sceptical that expansion will lead to increased foreign direct investment (FDI) within the bloc. Still, BRICS leaders and other investors touted the increased economic heft from the expansion. Increasing use of national currencies to reduce U.S. dollar dependence was another goal BRICS leaders discussed at the summit in Johannesburg. And with oil producer heavyweights among the newcomers, investors said this would feed speculation that Saudi Arabia might increasingly switch to non-dollar-denominated currencies for oil trade. "The short-term consequences could be seen in oil," said Kaan Nazli, a portfolio manager at asset manager Neuberger Berman in London.

Persons: Brazil Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, China Xi, Cyril Ramaphosa, India Narendra Modi, Sergei Lavrov, Viktor Szabo, Li Kexin, Ola El, Chris Turner, Jakob Ekholdt Christensen, Hasnain Malik, abrdn's Szabo, Kaan Nazli, Neuberger Berman, Rachel Savage, Karin Strohecker, Bansari Mayur, Marc Jones, Jorgelina, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Russia's, Iran, United Arab Emirates, abrdn, Emerging Markets, ING, Reuters Graphics, China, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: China, India, Sandton, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, JOHANNESBURG, LONDON, Argentina, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Johannesburg, United States, Saudi, London, Van Eck, New York, Copenhagen, Dubai, Bangalore, Rosario

But it was the repeated use of the word holistic - or "bütüncül" - by the former Goldman Sachs banker and Turkey's first female central bank chief that caught most of the attention. "We are making the gradual and steady rate hikes more holistic and stronger through quantitative tightening and selective credit tightening," Erkan told the news conference. "Unless the credit and monetary tightening really kick in, investors would expect the central bank to hike more aggressively," he said. "She clearly wants to be the face of Turkish monetary policy making," said Neuberger Berman's Nazli. "We saw a person who seems to be capable of being a central bank governor, compared to previous governors, but cautious."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's, Kaan Nazli, Neuberger Berman, policymaker Mehmet Simsek, Tim Ash, Erdogan, Ash, Marek Drimal, Neuberger Berman's Nazli, swerved, Emre Akcakmak, Karin Strohecker, Libby George, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Turkey's, Ministry, BlueBay Asset Management, Societe Generale, East Capital, Thomson Locations: Rosario, London

☆ Analysis: Investors lament lost opportunity after unconvincing Turkish rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Murad Sezer/IllustrationLONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - Foreign investors hoping for a game-changing rate hike from Turkey's newly appointed central bank chief said Thursday's disappointing move to a key rate of just 15% could keep some money on the sidelines. "They lost one perfect chance to demonstrate that they mean business," said Viktor Szabo, emerging markets investment director with Abrdn. But analysts said that after Thursday's decision, Erkan and Simsek would need to work even harder to prove the country had indeed shifted course. Already in the week to June 16, foreign investor holdings of Turkish government bonds had fallen by $16.2 million. "I don't think investors will throw in the towel just yet because I think there is still expectation there is more to come in the coming months," said Kaan Nazli, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman.

Persons: Murad Sezer, Thursday's, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Viktor Szabo, Abrdn, it's, It's, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Eric Fine, Marek Drimal, Simsek, Dan Wood, William Blair, Fitch, Erdogan, Erkan, Kaan, Neuberger Berman, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, VanEck

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